In the wake of the recent election, political analysts have been scrambling to identify the pivotal factors that contributed to the surprising victory of Donald Trump. The Ezra Klein Show delves deep into this discourse, examining the various hypotheses that emerged in the months following the election. With the passage of time and the accumulation of new data, a clearer picture of the Democratic Party’s shortcomings is beginning to take shape. In this post, we will fact-check the claims and theories discussed in the latest episode of the show, scrutinizing the evidence behind the narratives and exploring what the data truly reveals about the Democrats’ path forward. Join us as we unpack the complexities of election dynamics and the lessons that need to be learned.

Find the according transcript on TRNSCRBR

All information as of 03/18/2025

Fact Check Analysis

Claim

Young people today have different values than they did 10 years ago.

Veracity Rating: 4 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluating the Claim: Young People Today Have Different Values Than They Did 10 Years Ago

The claim that young people today have different values than they did 10 years ago can be evaluated through various studies and surveys that examine generational value shifts over time. Here's a detailed analysis based on available research:

### Generational Value Shifts

1. **Millennials and Value Change**: Research indicates that Millennials experience faster shifts in values compared to older generations. For instance, Millennials place greater emphasis on hedonism and safety, while values like stimulation and power have become less significant[5]. This suggests that younger generations are indeed undergoing changes in their values over time.

2. **Longitudinal Studies**: A study following individuals over 12 years found that Millennials showed significant changes in values, particularly in areas like achievement and conformity, while other values like hedonism remained stable[1][5]. This indicates that young people's values can evolve differently from those of older generations.

3. **Cohort Effects**: Generational differences are often attributed to unique historical circumstances and formative experiences. For example, Millennials and Gen Z have been shaped by different societal and economic conditions compared to previous generations[3]. This can lead to distinct value systems that persist as they age.

### Political and Social Attitudes

1. **Electoral Behavior**: Recent studies suggest that younger generations, such as Millennials and Gen Z, are driving electoral changes due to their distinct political views and behaviors[2]. This includes a shift towards more progressive positions on issues like immigration and environmental policies.

2. **Generational Replacement**: The concept of generational replacement suggests that as older generations pass away, they are replaced by younger, more progressive cohorts, potentially altering the political landscape[3]. This supports the idea that younger people today hold different values and attitudes compared to previous generations.

3. **Current Trends**: The recent trend of younger voters displaying conservative tendencies, as noted in political analyses, might seem contradictory but could reflect a complex interplay of factors such as economic dissatisfaction and political engagement[4]. However, this does not necessarily negate the broader shift in values among younger generations.

### Conclusion

Based on the available evidence, the claim that young people today have different values than they did 10 years ago is supported. Studies demonstrate that younger generations, particularly Millennials and Gen Z, exhibit distinct value shifts and political attitudes compared to older generations. These changes are influenced by generational differences, historical experiences, and ongoing societal trends[1][2][3][5]. Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that the values of young people have evolved over the past decade.

### Recommendations for Further Research

– **Longitudinal Surveys**: Conducting more longitudinal surveys can provide deeper insights into how values change over time within specific cohorts.
– **Cohort Analysis**: Further cohort analysis can help distinguish between life-cycle effects and genuine generational shifts in values.
– **Cross-Cultural Studies**: Examining value shifts across different cultures can offer a broader understanding of global trends in generational values.

Citations

Claim

Trump's approval rating is dropping pretty quickly as he is upsetting various groups.

Veracity Rating: 4 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluating the Claim: Trump's Approval Rating is Dropping Quickly

The claim that President Trump's approval rating is dropping quickly can be evaluated using recent polling data and surveys. Here's a detailed analysis based on available information:

### Recent Polling Trends

1. **Approval Ratings**: As of early 2025, Trump's approval ratings have shown a decline. According to FiveThirtyEight, his approval began at 49.7% and disapproval at 41.5% on January 21, but by February 28, his approval had dropped to 47.9%, with disapproval rising to 47.2%[1]. RealClearPolitics also reported a similar decline, with Trump's net positive rating decreasing from 8.5 points to 0.6 points by early March[1].

2. **Intensity of Disapproval**: Surveys indicate that Trump's opponents are more passionate about their disapproval than his supporters are about their approval. For instance, in the Economist/YouGov poll, only 30% of respondents strongly approved of Trump, while 37% strongly disapproved[1].

### Factors Contributing to Declining Approval

1. **Policy Discontent**: Trump's policies, particularly those affecting economic issues like inflation, have not resonated with voters. His focus on other areas, such as foreign policy and immigration, may not address the economic concerns that are most pressing for many Americans[1].

2. **Social and Economic Policies**: Criticisms of Trump's approach to social programs, such as Social Security and healthcare, have been highlighted by political opponents. These criticisms suggest that his policies are seen as harmful to working-class Americans, potentially contributing to declining approval[2].

3. **Political Polarization**: The current political landscape is marked by significant polarization. While Trump's base remains supportive, his actions have consolidated opposition, leading to a decline in overall approval ratings[1].

### Conclusion

The claim that Trump's approval rating is dropping quickly is supported by recent polling data, which shows a decline in his approval ratings and an increase in disapproval. Factors contributing to this decline include policy discontent, particularly on economic issues, and the intense disapproval from his opponents. However, it's also important to consider broader political trends, such as polarization and shifts in voter demographics, which may influence public sentiment towards Trump and political parties in general.

Citations

Claim

In 2024, Democrats received 58 percent of support from Hispanic moderates, which is a decrease from 81 percent in 2016.

Veracity Rating: 2 out of 4

Facts

To evaluate the claim that in 2024, Democrats received 58 percent of support from Hispanic moderates, which is a decrease from 81 percent in 2016, we need to examine available data and research on Hispanic voting patterns.

## Claim Evaluation

1. **Hispanic Voting Trends**: Historically, Hispanics have generally supported Democratic candidates more than Republicans. However, recent trends show a shift in this support. For instance, in the 2024 presidential election, exit polls suggested that Donald Trump achieved a record share of the Latino vote, capturing about 42 percent, while Kamala Harris secured 56 percent[5]. This indicates a decrease in Democratic support among Latinos compared to previous elections.

2. **Specific Data on Hispanic Moderates**: The claim specifically mentions a decline in support among Hispanic moderates from 81 percent in 2016 to 58 percent in 2024. However, detailed breakdowns of Hispanic moderates' voting patterns in these elections are not readily available in the provided sources. Typically, such specific data would be found in detailed exit polls or surveys conducted by reputable organizations like Pew Research or the U.S. Census Bureau.

3. **General Trends and Shifts**: There is evidence of a broader shift in voting patterns among Hispanic voters. For example, the share of Hispanic voters supporting Democratic candidates has decreased nationwide, particularly in states like Florida and Texas[2]. Additionally, there is a noted increase in ideological polarization and changes in voting behavior based on factors like education and economic concerns[2][3].

4. **Need for Specific Data**: To confirm the exact figures of 81 percent in 2016 and 58 percent in 2024 for Hispanic moderates, specific survey data or exit polls from those years would be necessary. Without such data, it's challenging to verify the claim precisely.

## Conclusion

While there is evidence of a general decline in Democratic support among Hispanic voters and a shift in voting patterns, the specific claim about Hispanic moderates' support dropping from 81 percent in 2016 to 58 percent in 2024 cannot be verified without more detailed and specific data. The trend of decreasing support for Democrats among certain demographics, including Hispanic voters, is consistent with broader electoral shifts and polarization trends observed in recent elections[1][2][3]. However, precise figures for Hispanic moderates would require access to detailed surveys or exit polls not provided in the available sources.

Citations

Claim

Democrats lost a significant amount of support among Hispanic voters and a modest amount among black voters from 2016 to 2024.

Veracity Rating: 4 out of 4

Facts

To evaluate the claim that Democrats lost a significant amount of support among Hispanic voters and a modest amount among black voters from 2016 to 2024, we need to examine election trends and demographic shifts during this period.

## Evidence and Analysis

1. **Hispanic Voters:**
– **Significant Shift:** There is substantial evidence indicating a significant shift of Hispanic voters towards the Republican Party. In the 2024 election, Donald Trump won a majority of Hispanic men and almost half of Hispanic women, marking a notable departure from previous trends where Democrats generally secured a majority of the Hispanic vote[4]. This shift is attributed to various factors, including economic concerns and a perception that the Democratic Party's messaging no longer resonates with these groups[2][4].
– **Historical Context:** Historically, Democrats have not always secured a large majority of the Hispanic vote. For instance, Cuban-Americans have often supported Republicans due to anti-communist sentiments[4]. However, the recent swing is more pronounced, reflecting broader demographic and ideological changes.

2. **Black Voters:**
– **Modest Shift:** While the shift among black voters is less dramatic compared to Hispanics, there is still evidence of a decline in support for Democrats. In the 2024 election, African-Americans voted for Kamala Harris over Trump by 80-20, which, although still a strong majority, represents a decline from previous elections[4]. This modest shift could be influenced by younger generations of black voters who are increasingly open to conservative views[2].
– **Historical Loyalty:** Black voters have traditionally been a strong base for the Democratic Party, but recent trends suggest some wavering among younger generations[2].

3. **General Trends and Implications:**
– **Polarization and Messaging:** The decline in support among these demographics is part of a broader trend of ideological polarization and dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party's messaging. Analysts suggest that economic issues and conservative tendencies among younger voters are driving these shifts[1][3].
– **Future Challenges:** The Democratic Party faces significant challenges in regaining support among these critical voter groups. It will require a strategic reevaluation of their messaging to better resonate with everyday economic concerns rather than solely focusing on institutional integrity[3].

## Conclusion

The claim that Democrats lost significant support among Hispanic voters and a modest amount among black voters from 2016 to 2024 is supported by recent election trends and demographic shifts. The shift among Hispanic voters is particularly pronounced, while the decline among black voters, though less dramatic, still signals a need for the Democratic Party to reassess its strategy to regain support among these crucial demographics.

**Evidence Sources:**
– [1] 19th News: Discusses the 2024 election results and shifts in voter demographics.
– [2] Axios: Analyzes the decline in Democratic support among non-white voters.
– [3] Third Way: Examines broader trends in Democratic Party support and challenges.
– [4] The Telegraph: Reports on the significant shift of Hispanic voters to the Republican Party.

Citations

Claim

For the first time, higher turnout did not benefit the Democratic Party in the 2024 election.

Veracity Rating: 4 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluating the Claim: "For the first time, higher turnout did not benefit the Democratic Party in the 2024 election."

To assess the validity of this claim, we need to examine voter turnout trends, election outcomes, and the impact of turnout on the Democratic Party's performance in the 2024 election.

### Voter Turnout and Election Outcomes

1. **Overall Turnout**: The 2024 election saw a decrease in overall voter turnout compared to 2020, with Democratic voters particularly underrepresented[1]. This decline in Democratic turnout was significant in traditional strongholds like New York and California[3].

2. **Impact on Democratic Performance**: Despite the general belief that higher turnout benefits Democrats, the 2024 election showed that increased turnout in some areas did not necessarily translate into more votes for the Democratic Party. Instead, Trump gained support across various demographics, including young people and Latinos[1][3].

### Shift in Political Dynamics

1. **Demographic Shifts**: There was a notable shift in support among key demographics. Young voters, for instance, showed a significant decline in support for Democrats, with a much smaller margin favoring Kamala Harris over Donald Trump compared to previous elections[5]. Additionally, Trump made gains among Latino voters, which was a crucial factor in his success[3].

2. **Ideological Polarization**: The election highlighted increased ideological polarization, with less politically active individuals and those concerned about economic issues gravitating towards Trump[1][5]. This trend suggests that traditional Democratic messaging may not be resonating with these groups.

### Conclusion

The claim that "for the first time, higher turnout did not benefit the Democratic Party in the 2024 election" is supported by the fact that despite expectations, increased turnout in some areas did not lead to more Democratic votes. Instead, the party faced significant challenges, including decreased turnout in traditional strongholds and shifts in demographic support[1][3][5]. However, it's essential to note that the relationship between turnout and partisan outcomes is complex and not always predictable[2].

### Evidence and Sources

– **Decreased Democratic Turnout**: The 2024 election saw a notable decline in Democratic voter turnout, particularly in liberal strongholds[1][3].
– **Shifts in Demographic Support**: Trump gained support among various demographics, including young people and Latinos[1][3][5].
– **Complexity of Turnout Effects**: There is no consistent evidence that higher turnout systematically benefits Democrats; outcomes depend on numerous factors, including messaging and demographic engagement[2].

In summary, while higher turnout is often believed to favor Democrats, the 2024 election showed that this was not the case. The party faced challenges in engaging key demographics and saw a decline in support from groups that traditionally voted Democratic. This shift underscores the need for the Democratic Party to reassess its messaging strategy to better connect with a broader range of voters.

Citations

Claim

The Biden administration's approval fall was influenced by events such as Afghanistan, inflation, immigration, and budget fights.

Veracity Rating: 4 out of 4

Facts

The claim that the Biden administration's approval fall was influenced by events such as Afghanistan, inflation, immigration, and budget fights can be supported by examining approval rating trends alongside major national events.

## Influence of Afghanistan
The withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 marked a significant point in President Biden's declining approval ratings. The chaotic scenes from Kabul and the perception of a poorly managed withdrawal contributed to a drop in Biden's approval from 49% at the start of August 2021 to 43% a month later[4]. While the economy is generally considered a more significant factor in presidential approval ratings, the Afghanistan withdrawal had a lasting impact on public perception, particularly among Republicans and independents[4].

## Impact of Inflation
Inflation has been a major concern affecting Biden's approval ratings. Rising inflation, especially in gas prices, has historically correlated with lower presidential approval ratings[5]. During Biden's presidency, inflation concerns have been particularly pronounced, with only 28% of Americans approving of his handling of inflation[5]. This economic dissatisfaction has contributed to a broader decline in support across various demographic groups.

## Immigration
Immigration has also been a contentious issue for the Biden administration, with approval ratings on this issue reaching a new low of 28%[1]. The handling of immigration has been a significant reason for disapproval among those who do not support Biden, indicating that immigration policy has played a role in his declining approval[1].

## Budget Fights
While specific data on budget fights directly impacting Biden's approval ratings is less prominent in recent discussions, economic concerns and government spending have been factors in public dissatisfaction. The perception of large government expenditures and their impact on inflation has contributed to a decline in support, particularly among independents[3].

## Conclusion
The claim that the Biden administration's approval fall was influenced by events such as Afghanistan, inflation, immigration, and economic concerns is supported by evidence. These factors have contributed to a decline in public approval, particularly among independents and Republicans, and have highlighted challenges for the administration in addressing key national issues[1][2][3][4][5].

In addition to these specific events, broader trends such as ideological polarization and economic dissatisfaction have further complicated the political landscape for the Democratic Party. The need for a reevaluation of messaging strategies to better engage with diverse voter groups on economic issues is emphasized, especially given shifts in support among young voters and non-white demographics.

Citations

Claim

If only people who had voted in 2022 had voted, Harris would have won the popular vote and the Electoral College easily.

Veracity Rating: 1 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluating the Claim: "If only people who had voted in 2022 had voted, Harris would have won the popular vote and the Electoral College easily."

To assess the validity of this claim, we must consider several factors, including voter turnout patterns, demographic voting trends, and the electoral system in the United States.

### 1. **Voter Turnout and Demographic Trends in 2022**

– **Turnout Rates**: The 2022 midterm elections saw a high national turnout rate of 52.2%, which was the second-highest for a midterm in four decades, following the record 53.4% in 2018[1]. However, certain demographic groups, such as young people and non-white voters, did not increase their turnout rates compared to 2018 and, in some cases, experienced lower turnout[1][5].

– **Demographic Voting Patterns**: In the 2022 midterms, groups like young voters, Black Americans, and women generally supported Democratic candidates, but their turnout did not exceed that of 2018[1]. Republicans benefited from higher turnout among their supporters, contributing to their gains in the House[3].

### 2. **Electoral College System**

– The Electoral College system requires a candidate to win a majority of electoral votes (270 out of 538) to secure the presidency. The outcome is determined by state-level results rather than the national popular vote[2].

### 3. **Hypothetical Scenario Analysis**

– **Assumptions**: The claim assumes that if only 2022 voters participated, Harris would win both the popular vote and the Electoral College. This scenario hinges on the voting patterns and turnout rates of the 2022 electorate.

– **Limitations**: Without specific data on how the exact same voters from 2022 would behave in a presidential election, it's challenging to predict the outcome accurately. Additionally, presidential elections often draw different turnout patterns compared to midterms[1][3].

### 4. **Recent Trends and Challenges for Democrats**

– Recent analyses indicate that Democrats face challenges in maintaining support among certain demographics, such as Hispanic moderates and non-white conservatives, due to ideological polarization and economic concerns[Additional Information]. This trend could affect future election outcomes.

### Conclusion

While the claim suggests that Harris would win if only 2022 voters participated, it lacks concrete evidence to support such a definitive outcome. The electoral system, demographic trends, and potential shifts in voter behavior make it difficult to predict election results based solely on past turnout patterns. Therefore, without more detailed and specific data on voter intentions and turnout in a hypothetical scenario, the claim remains speculative.

### Recommendations for Further Analysis

1. **Detailed Voter Intention Data**: Collecting data on how 2022 voters would vote in a presidential election could provide more insight.
2. **State-Level Analysis**: Since the Electoral College is determined by state outcomes, analyzing state-level voting patterns is crucial.
3. **Consideration of External Factors**: Economic conditions, political polarization, and campaign strategies can significantly influence election outcomes.

Citations

Claim

Immigrants went from being a Biden plus 27 group in 2020 to a group that Trump narrowly won in 2024.

Veracity Rating: 1 out of 4

Facts

To evaluate the claim that immigrants shifted from supporting Biden by a margin of 27 points in 2020 to narrowly supporting Trump in 2024, we need to examine available data on immigrant voting patterns in both elections.

## Analysis of the Claim

1. **2020 Election Data**: In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, Joe Biden generally performed well among immigrant communities, including Hispanic and Asian-American voters. However, specific data on the exact margin of support among all immigrant groups is not readily available in the provided sources.

2. **2024 Election Data**: The 2024 election saw significant shifts in voting patterns across various demographics. While there is evidence of Trump improving his standing among certain racial and ethnic groups, including Hispanic men and some immigrant communities, the claim of a dramatic shift among all immigrants specifically is not directly supported by the sources.

3. **Immigrant Voting Trends in 2024**: Immigrant voters, particularly those who are foreign-born or first-generation, have diverse political views and are influenced by various factors, including economic issues and immigration policies[1][2]. While Trump made gains among some immigrant groups, such as Hispanic men, there is no clear indication that he won the immigrant vote overall[3].

4. **Economic and Social Factors**: Economic dissatisfaction and inflation concerns were significant factors influencing voting decisions in 2024, potentially leading to shifts in support among less politically active individuals[1][3]. However, these factors alone do not confirm a complete reversal of immigrant support from Biden to Trump.

5. **Lack of Specific Data**: The claim of a 27-point shift in support from Biden to Trump among immigrants is not directly supported by the available data. Detailed precinct-level data or comprehensive surveys specifically addressing immigrant voting patterns in both elections would be necessary to verify such a claim.

## Conclusion

Based on the available information, there is no clear evidence to support the claim that immigrants shifted from supporting Biden by a margin of 27 points in 2020 to narrowly supporting Trump in 2024. While there were shifts in support among certain demographics, including some immigrant groups, the overall trend among all immigrants is not conclusively documented in the provided sources. Therefore, without specific data or surveys directly addressing immigrant voting patterns in both elections, this claim remains unsubstantiated.

Citations

Claim

The Democratic belief that polarization around Trump would return in immigrant communities did not occur.

Veracity Rating: 3 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluating the Claim: "The Democratic belief that polarization around Trump would return in immigrant communities did not occur."

To assess the validity of this claim, we need to examine polling data and research on Trump's support in immigrant communities during recent election cycles. The claim suggests that the expected polarization around Trump in immigrant communities did not materialize as anticipated by Democrats.

### Analysis of Trump's Support in Immigrant Communities

1. **Shifts in Latino Support**: The 2020 election saw a notable increase in Latina voters supporting Trump, with about 29% backing him, up from 22% in 2016[3]. This shift indicates that Trump's support among certain immigrant groups, particularly Hispanic voters, did not follow the expected polarization pattern. In the 2024 election, Trump made significant gains among Latino men, driven by economic anxieties[5].

2. **Immigrant Voters' Preferences**: Foreign-born and first-generation immigrant voters generally lean Democratic but are not uniform in their party affiliation or priorities[5]. However, there is evidence that some immigrant groups, like white immigrants, are more evenly split between parties[5]. This diversity in voting behavior suggests that polarization around Trump may not be as pronounced as expected in all immigrant communities.

3. **Economic Factors and Polarization**: The trend of less politically active individuals, including some in immigrant communities, gravitating towards Trump due to economic dissatisfaction and inflation concerns, indicates a complex interplay of factors influencing voter behavior[5]. This suggests that economic issues, rather than purely ideological polarization around Trump, may be driving some shifts in support.

4. **The Trump Paradox**: Research by the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute found that Trump's strongest support came from areas with low immigration and international trade, contradicting his campaign rhetoric that immigrants and trade are economic threats[3]. This paradox highlights that support for Trump is not solely driven by anti-immigrant sentiments but by a complex array of factors.

### Conclusion

The claim that polarization around Trump did not return in immigrant communities as expected by Democrats appears to have some validity. While there are certainly partisan divisions and ideological polarization in the broader electorate, immigrant communities exhibit diverse voting behaviors influenced by economic factors, political engagement, and demographic specifics. The shifts in support among certain immigrant groups, such as Hispanic voters, and the complex factors driving voter behavior suggest that the anticipated polarization did not occur uniformly across all immigrant communities.

### Evidence and Sources

– **Shifts in Latino Support**: The UCLA LPPI report highlights increased support for Trump among Latina voters[3].
– **Immigrant Voters' Preferences**: Brookings Institution notes that immigrant voters are diverse and not uniformly aligned with either party[5].
– **Economic Factors and Polarization**: Economic dissatisfaction is a significant factor driving support shifts among less politically active individuals[5].
– **The Trump Paradox**: The UCLA LPPI study reveals that Trump's support is highest in areas with low immigration, contradicting his rhetoric[3].

Citations

Claim

Inflation probably played some kind of role in electoral outcomes.

Veracity Rating: 4 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluating the Claim: Inflation's Role in Electoral Outcomes

The claim that inflation played a role in electoral outcomes is supported by various studies and analyses, particularly in the context of recent elections like the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Here's a detailed evaluation of this claim based on available evidence:

### Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

1. **Inflation as a Key Concern**: Inflation was a top concern for voters in the 2024 election. According to exit polls, 75% of voters reported that inflation had caused them moderate or severe hardship over the past year[1]. This widespread concern likely influenced voting decisions, as many voters perceived inflation as a significant economic issue affecting their lives.

2. **Impact on Voting Behavior**: Studies indicate that perceptions of inflation negatively impacted support for the Democratic Party. Voters who believed inflation was higher tended to have more negative opinions about Democratic candidates and the party's economic management[1]. This suggests that inflation concerns may have shifted some voters away from the Democrats.

3. **Food Prices and Inflation**: The Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey highlighted the importance of food prices and inflation in the 2024 election. Participants who voted for Trump reported being more affected by inflation, particularly with grocery prices, than those who voted for Harris[3]. This underscores how specific economic issues, like food prices, can influence electoral outcomes.

### Broader Context: Economic Voting Theories

Economic theories of voting often suggest that negative perceptions of the economy, including inflation, can lead voters to oppose the incumbent party[4]. However, the relationship between economic conditions and voting is complex and can be influenced by various factors, including political polarization and social issues[4].

### Conclusion

The claim that inflation played a role in electoral outcomes is supported by evidence from the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Inflation was a major concern for voters, and it likely influenced their voting decisions, particularly in favor of candidates perceived as better equipped to manage economic issues. While economic conditions are just one factor among many that influence elections, the available data suggest that inflation was a significant factor in the 2024 election.

### Recommendations for Future Research

– **Longitudinal Studies**: Conducting longitudinal studies to track how perceptions of inflation evolve over time and how they impact voting behavior across multiple elections could provide deeper insights.
– **Comparative Analysis**: Comparing the impact of inflation on electoral outcomes across different countries and political systems could help identify broader patterns or unique factors specific to certain contexts.
– **Multivariate Analysis**: Incorporating other variables, such as political polarization, social issues, and demographic changes, into analyses could help clarify the relative importance of inflation in electoral outcomes.

Citations

Claim

The Conservatives in the UK increased their vote share among 18 to 24-year-old voters by 2 or 3 percent despite a general overall decline in support.

Veracity Rating: 0 out of 4

Facts

The claim that the Conservatives in the UK increased their vote share among 18 to 24-year-old voters by 2 or 3 percent in the 2024 election is not supported by available data. In fact, the evidence suggests a significant decline in Conservative support among young voters.

According to various analyses of the 2024 UK General Election, the Conservative Party's support among young voters was notably low. For instance, Ipsos reported that the Conservative vote share fell across all age groups, with no indication of an increase among 18 to 24-year-olds[2]. YouGov noted that only about 8% of voters under 30 supported the Conservatives, which is a continuation of a trend where young voters are less likely to support the party[3]. Similarly, Prof James Sloam and Prof Matt Henn highlighted that the Conservatives scored only an estimated 8% among 18-24 year-olds, indicating a significant decline from previous elections[5].

Furthermore, the Conservative Party's efforts to appeal to young voters, such as joining TikTok and proposing policies like national service, did not appear to resonate with this demographic[1]. The party's focus on a "core voter strategy" targeting older voters further suggests that they did not prioritize increasing their vote share among young people[1].

In summary, there is no evidence to support the claim that the Conservatives increased their vote share among 18 to 24-year-old voters by 2 or 3 percent in the 2024 election. Instead, the data indicates a continued decline in support for the Conservatives among young voters.

**Conclusion**: The claim is **false** based on available data and analyses.

Citations

Claim

Voters are overwhelmingly prioritizing cost of living and inflation over other issues like abortion and climate change.

Veracity Rating: 2 out of 4

Facts

To evaluate the claim that voters are overwhelmingly prioritizing cost of living and inflation over other issues like abortion and climate change, we need to examine recent polling data and research findings.

### Evidence Supporting the Claim

1. **Cost of Living and Inflation as Top Concerns**: A survey conducted in February 2025 found that inflation and prices were the most important issue for 24% of Americans, followed by jobs and the economy for 12%[5]. This indicates that economic concerns, particularly inflation, are significant for many voters.

2. **Youth Priorities**: In a post-election youth poll, 64% of young people chose the cost of living/inflation as one of their top three priorities, making it the biggest issue for this demographic[1]. However, other issues like healthcare, abortion, and climate change also ranked high, suggesting a diverse set of concerns.

3. **General Public Sentiment**: A Reuters/Ipsos survey from March 2025 showed that 61% of Americans believe the cost of living is on the wrong track, and 60% feel similarly about inflation[3]. This widespread dissatisfaction with economic conditions supports the notion that these issues are paramount.

### Evidence Challenging the Claim

1. **Diverse Issue Priorities**: While inflation and cost of living are significant, other issues like abortion, climate change, and healthcare are also highly prioritized by various segments of the population. For example, abortion has become a top concern for women under 30[4], and climate change is a major issue for many young people[1].

2. **Support for Progressive Policies**: Polls from 2022 showed strong support for progressive policies on abortion, climate change, and immigration across racial and ethnic groups[2]. This suggests that while economic issues are important, other social and environmental concerns are also highly valued.

3. **Segmented Priorities**: Different demographics prioritize different issues. For instance, young women are more likely to prioritize healthcare and abortion, while young men focus more on economic issues like jobs and inflation[1]. This diversity in priorities complicates the claim that voters are overwhelmingly focused on cost of living and inflation.

### Conclusion

The claim that voters are overwhelmingly prioritizing cost of living and inflation over other issues like abortion and climate change is partially supported by polling data showing economic concerns as top priorities. However, it is also evident that other issues, such as abortion and climate change, remain highly important to significant segments of the population. Therefore, while economic issues are prominent, they do not overshadow all other concerns, and voters' priorities are more nuanced and diverse than the claim suggests.

### Recommendations for Future Analysis

– **Demographic Analysis**: Future studies should continue to analyze issue priorities by demographic to understand how different groups weigh various issues.
– **Longitudinal Studies**: Conducting longitudinal studies can help track changes in issue priorities over time, providing insights into how economic conditions and political events influence voter concerns.
– **Policy Impact**: Analyzing how policy changes affect voter priorities can offer insights into how political actions influence public opinion on key issues.

Citations

Claim

The Democratic Party faced a significant challenge due to Kamala Harris being seen as too close to the unpopular Biden administration.

Veracity Rating: 2 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluating the Claim: Kamala Harris's Association with the Biden Administration

The claim suggests that Kamala Harris's close association with the unpopular Biden administration posed a significant challenge for the Democratic Party. To assess this assertion, we need to examine polling data and perceptions of both Biden's administration and Harris's individual popularity.

### Biden Administration's Popularity

Joe Biden's administration has faced persistent unpopularity, with a significant portion of Americans holding unfavorable views. As of recent polls, Biden's unfavorable ratings have remained high, with 62% of Americans viewing him unfavorably[2]. This widespread disapproval could potentially impact Harris, given her role as vice president.

### Kamala Harris's Popularity

Kamala Harris has seen fluctuations in her popularity, but she has generally struggled to gain widespread support outside of her party. Initially, her favorability ratings were lower, but they improved significantly after she became the Democratic nominee for the 2024 election. By August 2024, 44% of U.S. adults had a favorable view of Harris, an increase from previous months[2]. However, her popularity remains polarized, with strong support from Democrats but significant disapproval from Republicans[2].

### Impact of Association with Biden

While Harris's association with the Biden administration might have initially contributed to skepticism about her leadership, her efforts to rebrand herself and focus on key Democratic issues have helped improve her standing within the party. However, the broader perception of the Biden administration's policies and popularity could still influence voter attitudes toward Harris.

### Evidence and Analysis

1. **Polling Data**: Early polls showed that Harris faced skepticism similar to Biden, with both having high unfavorable ratings[1]. However, as Harris became the nominee, her favorability increased, particularly among Democrats[2].

2. **Perception of Leadership**: Harris has been viewed as a strong leader by a significant portion of Democrats but faces challenges among independents and Republicans[1]. This polarization suggests that her association with Biden might not be the sole factor in her popularity but rather one of several.

3. **Policy Continuity**: Harris has signaled continuity with Biden's economic policies, known as "Bidenomics," which could reinforce perceptions of her closeness to the administration[3]. However, she has also proposed changes, such as a smaller capital gains tax rate, to differentiate herself[3].

4. **Election Dynamics**: The 2024 election dynamics, including voter enthusiasm and policy debates, have shifted focus away from purely associational factors. Harris's campaign has emphasized issues like affordable housing and addressing inflation, which are critical to engaging broader voter bases[4].

### Conclusion

While Kamala Harris's association with the Biden administration might have initially posed challenges due to the administration's unpopularity, her efforts to rebrand and focus on key issues have helped improve her standing. The claim that her closeness to the Biden administration was a significant challenge is partially supported by early polling data but is not the sole factor influencing her popularity. As the election progressed, Harris's individual policy positions and campaign messaging became more prominent in shaping voter perceptions.

### Recommendations for Future Analysis

– **Longitudinal Polling**: Conducting longitudinal studies to track changes in voter perceptions over time could provide deeper insights into how Harris's association with Biden impacts her popularity.
– **Policy Differentiation**: Analyzing how Harris differentiates her policies from Biden's could help understand if this strategy mitigates any negative perceptions associated with the administration.
– **Voter Engagement**: Examining voter engagement and enthusiasm among different demographics could reveal whether Harris's campaign successfully addresses concerns about the Democratic Party's messaging strategy.

Citations

Claim

Trust in Democrats decreased significantly on issues that voters cared the most about, responding to the Biden administration's unpopularity.

Veracity Rating: 2 out of 4

Facts

To evaluate the claim that trust in Democrats decreased significantly on issues that voters cared the most about, responding to the Biden administration's unpopularity, we need to examine comparative trust metrics between parties over time, particularly focusing on key issues such as economic policies, healthcare, and education.

## Key Issues and Trust Metrics

1. **Economic Policies**: The Democratic Party has faced challenges in articulating a clear economic agenda that resonates with working-class voters. This has led to a perception that Democrats are more aligned with affluent professionals than with everyday economic struggles[1]. The Biden administration's policies, while aimed at addressing economic inequality, have not fully alleviated concerns about inflation and economic dissatisfaction, which have driven some voters towards more conservative options[3].

2. **Healthcare and Education**: While Democrats have traditionally been strong on these issues, recent trends suggest that their messaging may not be effectively reaching key demographics. For instance, the party's focus on institutional integrity and democracy has not fully addressed the economic anxieties of many voters[5].

3. **Comparative Trust Metrics**: Research indicates that trust in political parties can fluctuate based on election outcomes and party performance. For example, after the 2020 election, Democratic trust in the electoral system increased, while Republican trust decreased[2][4]. However, this dynamic does not directly address the specific claim about trust in Democrats on key issues.

## Decline in Support Among Key Demographics

– **Young Voters and Non-White Groups**: There is evidence that the Democratic Party has lost ground among certain demographics, including Hispanic moderates and non-white conservatives, due to ideological polarization and economic dissatisfaction[3]. Younger voters are also showing more conservative tendencies, which poses a challenge for the party's future[5].

– **Education and Political Engagement**: The sorting of partisan preferences based on educational attainment has become more pronounced, with college-educated voters increasingly supporting Democrats, while non-college-educated voters, including some non-white groups, have shifted towards Republicans[3].

## Urgent Need for Rethinking Messaging Strategy

The decline in support among key demographics highlights the need for Democrats to reassess their messaging strategy. Focusing more on economic issues and engaging with everyday voters could help improve trust and support[3][5].

## Conclusion

While there is evidence of declining support for Democrats among certain demographics and a need to improve messaging on economic issues, the specific claim about a significant decrease in trust on key issues due to the Biden administration's unpopularity requires more nuanced analysis. Trust metrics can vary widely based on numerous factors, including election outcomes and party performance. However, it is clear that the Democratic Party faces significant challenges in maintaining support among working-class voters and younger demographics, which necessitates a strategic reevaluation of their policy agenda and communication approach.

**Evidence and Citations**:
– The Democratic Party's struggle to connect with working-class voters and its perception as being out of touch with economic struggles[1].
– Shifts in voter demographics and the impact of ideological polarization[3].
– The importance of addressing economic dissatisfaction and inflation concerns[3].
– The need for Democrats to rethink their messaging strategy to better engage with everyday voters[5].

Citations

Claim

Democrats were believed to have a potential advantage among young voters that did not materialize as expected in the election.

Veracity Rating: 3 out of 4

Facts

## Claim Evaluation: Democrats' Advantage Among Young Voters in the 2024 Election

The claim suggests that Democrats were expected to have an advantage among young voters in the 2024 election, but this advantage did not materialize as anticipated. To evaluate this claim, we will examine recent trends in youth voter turnout and political preferences.

### Youth Voter Turnout and Preferences

1. **Turnout and Vote Choice**: According to Circle at Tufts, the youth voter turnout in the 2024 presidential election was estimated at 42%, which is lower than the 50%+ turnout in 2020 and similar to the 2016 levels[1]. Young voters favored Kamala Harris over Donald Trump by a margin of 4 points (51% to 47%), which is significantly narrower than the margin in 2020 when Biden led Trump by 25 points among young voters[1].

2. **Shifts in Party Identification**: There was a notable shift in party identification among young voters. The 2024 youth electorate was more Republican than in 2020, with Democratic-identifying youth decreasing by 5 points and those identifying as "neither" decreasing by 4 points[1]. This indicates a potential erosion of the Democratic advantage among young voters.

3. **Ideological Shifts**: The youth electorate in 2024 had fewer liberal and more conservative identifiers compared to 2020. Moderate voters, who made up a similar percentage in both elections, shifted from supporting Biden by a 20-point margin in 2020 to supporting Trump by a 5-point margin in 2024[1].

### Factors Influencing Youth Voting Trends

1. **Candidate Connection and Mobilization**: Research suggests that a strong connection between candidates and young voters can significantly boost turnout. If candidates fail to engage with young people effectively, turnout tends to be lower[2].

2. **Peer Influence**: The Harvard Youth Poll highlighted that peer influence plays a crucial role in youth voting decisions. When young Americans believe their friends will vote, they are more likely to participate[5].

3. **Polarization and Disillusionment**: There is growing disillusionment among young voters with the two-party system, leading to increased registrations for third parties or no-party affiliations[3]. This trend could further erode the traditional Democratic advantage among young voters.

### Conclusion

The claim that Democrats' expected advantage among young voters did not materialize as anticipated in the 2024 election is supported by several factors:

– **Lower Turnout**: Youth voter turnout was lower than in 2020, which could indicate less enthusiasm for Democratic candidates[1][3].
– **Narrower Vote Margins**: The margin of support for Democratic candidates among young voters was significantly reduced compared to previous elections[1].
– **Shifts in Party Identification and Ideology**: Young voters became more conservative and less aligned with traditional Democratic identifiers[1].
– **Disillusionment with the Two-Party System**: Growing dissatisfaction with major parties could lead to decreased loyalty to Democrats among young voters[3].

Overall, while young voters still favored Democratic candidates, the trends suggest a weakening of the traditional Democratic advantage among this demographic.

Citations

Claim

The firm conducts randomized controlled trials on ads to assess their causal effects on voting preferences.

Veracity Rating: 3 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluating the Claim: Conducting Randomized Controlled Trials on Ads to Assess Causal Effects on Voting Preferences

The claim that a firm conducts randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on ads to assess their causal effects on voting preferences can be verified by examining the firm's methodology and any published results from their ad trials. While the specific firm is not mentioned, there are general practices and studies that support the use of RCTs in assessing the impact of advertising on voting preferences.

### Evidence from Academic and Research Studies

1. **Political Microtargeting Studies**: Research on political microtargeting often involves RCTs to evaluate the effectiveness of targeted messages. For instance, a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) used a two-phase study design, including a calibration phase and an experimental phase, to assess the persuasiveness of microtargeting strategies compared to other messaging approaches[1]. This study demonstrates the use of RCTs in political messaging research.

2. **MaxDiff Surveys for Message Testing**: Another approach to testing political messages involves using MaxDiff surveys, which can be correlated with RCTs but require smaller sample sizes. A study by Priorities USA and Data for Progress found that MaxDiff surveys were effective in identifying persuasive messages for progressive policies, though it did not specifically mention RCTs on ads[3].

3. **Generalizability of Advertising Effects**: Research in marketing science also explores the causal effects of advertising through meta-analyses and RCTs. For example, a presentation at the INFORMS Marketing Science Conference discussed conducting RCTs in collaboration with an education company to study advertising effects, highlighting the importance of baseline conversion rates in determining causal estimates[2].

### Conclusion on the Claim

While there is no specific evidence provided about a firm conducting RCTs on ads to assess their causal effects on voting preferences, the practice of using RCTs in political and advertising research is well-established. Firms involved in political messaging or advertising could potentially use RCTs as part of their methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of their campaigns.

To verify the claim about a specific firm, one would need to review the firm's published methodologies or results from their trials. However, the general use of RCTs in assessing advertising effects, including political messaging, is supported by academic and research practices.

### Recommendations for Verification

1. **Review Published Methodologies**: Look for any published papers or reports by the firm detailing their use of RCTs in ad trials.
2. **Examine Research Collaborations**: Check if the firm has collaborated with academic institutions or research organizations known for conducting RCTs in advertising or political science.
3. **Consult Industry Reports**: Industry reports or conference presentations may provide insights into the firm's methodologies and any results from RCTs on ad effectiveness.

Citations

Claim

During the election, 53% of respondents believed that major change was needed in America compared to 37% who favored a return to basic stability.

Veracity Rating: 2 out of 4

Facts

To evaluate the claim that "during the election, 53% of respondents believed that major change was needed in America compared to 37% who favored a return to basic stability," we need to assess available polling data and survey question wording. However, the provided search results do not directly address this specific claim. Therefore, we will analyze the broader context of public opinion during the 2024 election and related trends.

## Analysis of Public Opinion and Election Trends

1. **Public Sentiment and Election Outcomes**: The 2024 election saw significant partisan polarization, with Republican voters expressing satisfaction and excitement about the outcome, while Democrats were worried and disappointed[1]. This polarization suggests that voters were indeed seeking change or stability, depending on their political affiliations.

2. **Economic Concerns and Ideological Shifts**: Economic issues, such as inflation, were major concerns for many Americans, which could influence their desire for change or stability[3]. The shift towards ideological polarization, with less politically active individuals gravitating towards Trump due to economic dissatisfaction, indicates that economic factors played a significant role in shaping public opinion[5].

3. **Demographic Trends**: The Democratic Party faced challenges in maintaining support among key demographics like young voters and non-white groups. This trend suggests that messaging strategies may not have resonated with these groups, potentially leading to a desire for change or stability depending on their political leanings[5].

## Conclusion

Without specific polling data directly addressing the claim about the percentages of respondents seeking major change versus a return to basic stability, we cannot definitively validate the claim. However, the broader context indicates that economic concerns and ideological polarization were significant factors influencing public opinion during the 2024 election. These factors likely contributed to diverse views on whether major change or stability was needed in America.

To fully assess the claim, it would be necessary to review specific survey questions and results from reputable polling organizations that directly address these sentiments. The available information highlights the complexity of public opinion during the election but does not provide direct evidence to support or refute the specific percentages mentioned in the claim.

Citations

Claim

The perception that Donald Trump was too extreme increased from 2016 to 2020 relative to the Democratic candidates.

Veracity Rating: 3 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluating the Claim: Perception of Donald Trump's Extremism from 2016 to 2020

To assess the claim that the perception of Donald Trump as too extreme increased from 2016 to 2020 relative to Democratic candidates, we must examine polling data, public opinion trends, and academic analyses from these periods.

### Polling Data and Public Opinion

1. **Polling Limitations**: The Pew Research Center noted that polling in both the 2016 and 2020 elections faced challenges, with many polls overstating Democratic support[4]. However, these polls generally did not directly measure perceptions of extremism.

2. **Public Perception**: While direct polling data on perceptions of extremism might be scarce, public opinion on Trump's behavior and rhetoric often highlighted controversy. For instance, his tweets and public statements frequently generated negative reactions, which could contribute to a perception of extremism[2][3].

### Academic and Analytical Perspectives

1. **Social Media Impact**: Research indicates that Trump's use of social media, particularly Twitter, had a negative effect on his vote share, possibly due to a backlash from moderate voters[2]. This suggests that his perceived extremism might have increased over time as more people became aware of his controversial statements.

2. **Right-Wing Extremism**: Studies have shown that Trump's presidency was associated with an increase in right-wing extremist activity[3]. This correlation could imply that Trump's perceived extremism grew as his presidency was linked to heightened extremist activity.

3. **Political Polarization**: The period from 2016 to 2020 saw significant political polarization, with Trump often being at the center of divisive issues[5]. This polarization could contribute to an increased perception of his extremism, especially among those who oppose his policies or rhetoric.

### Conclusion

While direct polling data specifically measuring the perception of Trump's extremism from 2016 to 2020 is not readily available, indirect evidence suggests that his controversial statements and actions, along with increased polarization and extremist activity during his presidency, likely contributed to a growing perception of him as extreme. However, this conclusion is based on inference rather than explicit polling data on the topic.

### Recommendations for Future Research

– **Direct Polling**: Conduct specific polls or surveys to directly measure public perceptions of Trump's extremism over time.
– **Social Media Analysis**: Further analyze the impact of social media on public perceptions of political figures, including how it might amplify or mitigate perceptions of extremism.
– **Comparative Analysis**: Compare perceptions of Trump's extremism with those of other political figures to provide a more nuanced understanding of how extremism is perceived across different political ideologies.

Citations

Claim

The Democratic Party holds trust from only 42% of Americans on economic issues, compared to 58% for Republicans.

Veracity Rating: 0 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluating the Claim: Democratic Party's Economic Trust

The claim suggests that the Democratic Party holds trust from only 42% of Americans on economic issues, compared to 58% for Republicans. To assess this assertion, we need to examine comprehensive polling data regarding party trust on economic matters.

### Available Polling Data

1. **Gallup Polls**: A Gallup poll from October 2023 indicates that 53% of Americans believe the Republican Party will do a better job of keeping the country prosperous, while 39% choose the Democratic Party[2]. This shows a significant lead for Republicans in economic trust but does not directly support the specific percentages in the claim.

2. **Navigator Research**: A report from October 2024 shows that Americans are evenly split on who they trust to handle the cost of living (45% trust Democrats – 44% trust Republicans) and jobs and the economy (45% trust Democrats – 46% trust Republicans)[4]. This data does not align with the claim of a 42% trust level for Democrats.

3. **Recent Polling in Competitive Districts**: A survey from March 2025 indicates that in competitive House districts, voters trust Republicans slightly more than Democrats on economic management (46% to 41%)[3]. However, this does not provide a national figure or support the specific claim.

### Conclusion

Based on the available data, the claim that the Democratic Party holds trust from only 42% of Americans on economic issues, compared to 58% for Republicans, is not directly supported by the polling data reviewed. Gallup polls show a Republican lead in economic trust, but the specific percentages in the claim are not validated by these or other referenced sources. Therefore, the claim appears to be unsubstantiated by the current evidence.

### Recommendations for Further Analysis

– **National Polling Data**: To validate the claim, comprehensive national polling data specifically addressing economic trust in both parties would be necessary.
– **Methodological Considerations**: Any analysis should consider the methodology of the polls, including sample sizes, demographics, and question phrasing, which can influence results.
– **Temporal Context**: Economic perceptions can shift rapidly due to political events or economic changes, so data should be considered in the context of recent developments.

In summary, while there is evidence of Republican advantages in economic trust, the specific claim about the Democratic Party's trust level is not supported by the reviewed sources.

Citations

Claim

Candidates who perform well on their campaigns by acknowledging voters' anger about economic conditions can resonate more with the electorate.

Veracity Rating: 4 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluating the Claim: Candidates Who Acknowledge Voters' Economic Anger Resonate More with the Electorate

The claim that candidates who perform well by acknowledging voters' anger about economic conditions can resonate more with the electorate is supported by various studies and analyses of election outcomes. This evaluation will examine the validity of this claim using reliable sources.

### Economic Conditions and Voter Sentiment

1. **Economic Dissatisfaction and Voting Behavior**: Research indicates that economic dissatisfaction significantly influences voting behavior. Voters often prioritize economic issues, especially during times of economic hardship or uncertainty. For instance, studies have shown that parties perceived as shifting to the right on economic issues can gain electoral support, particularly during recessions when voters prioritize economic competence[2].

2. **Campaign Messaging and Economic Anger**: The Democratic Party's recent decline in support among key demographics, such as Hispanic moderates and non-white conservatives, highlights the importance of addressing economic concerns effectively. Analysts like David Shore from Blue Rose Research note that less politically active individuals, driven by economic dissatisfaction and inflation concerns, have gravitated towards Trump[3]. This trend underscores the need for political parties to align their messaging with voters' economic anxieties.

### Evidence from Election Outcomes

1. **2024 Election Analysis**: The 2024 U.S. presidential election saw Donald Trump improve his vote share by focusing on issues like trade, globalization, and immigration, which resonated with voters concerned about economic conditions[3]. This strategy allowed him to maintain a strong base despite broader societal divisions.

2. **Historical Context**: Historically, parties that effectively address economic grievances tend to perform better in elections. For example, during the Great Depression, Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal policies helped him win widespread support by addressing economic hardship[4].

### Conclusion

The claim that candidates who acknowledge voters' economic anger can resonate more with the electorate is supported by evidence from election outcomes and analyses of voter behavior. Political parties that effectively address economic concerns and dissatisfaction tend to gain more support from voters. The Democratic Party's recent struggles highlight the urgency of rethinking their messaging strategy to better engage with voters on economic issues.

### Recommendations for Future Research

– **Quantitative Analysis**: Conduct quantitative studies to measure the impact of economic messaging on voter turnout and party preference.
– **Qualitative Insights**: Gather qualitative data through surveys and focus groups to understand how voters perceive economic policies and messaging strategies.
– **Comparative Studies**: Compare the electoral success of parties in different countries based on their economic policy platforms and messaging strategies.

By focusing on these areas, researchers can provide more nuanced insights into how acknowledging economic anger affects electoral outcomes.

Citations

Claim

The share of young voters who get their news from TikTok more than quadrupled in the last four years.

Veracity Rating: 4 out of 4

Facts

## Claim Evaluation: The Share of Young Voters Who Get Their News from TikTok More Than Quadrupled in the Last Four Years

To evaluate the claim that the share of young voters who get their news from TikTok more than quadrupled in the last four years, we need to examine recent data on TikTok's role in news consumption, particularly among young adults.

### Evidence from Pew Research Center

1. **Overall Growth in News Consumption on TikTok**: According to Pew Research Center, the share of U.S. adults who regularly get news from TikTok has grown significantly, from 3% in 2020 to 17% in 2024. This represents a fivefold increase over four years[1][2][3].

2. **Young Adults and TikTok News Consumption**: Specifically, among adults under 30, 39% now regularly get news from TikTok. This demographic is crucial for understanding young voters' media habits[1][3].

3. **TikTok Users and News Consumption**: Among all TikTok users, the percentage who regularly consume news on the platform has risen from 22% in 2020 to 52% in 2024. This indicates a substantial increase in news consumption among TikTok users overall[1][3].

### Analysis

While the claim specifically mentions young voters, the available data focuses on young adults and TikTok users in general. However, given that young adults are a significant portion of young voters, it's reasonable to infer that the trend applies broadly to this demographic.

The data shows that the share of young adults (under 30) who get news from TikTok has increased significantly. In 2020, only 22% of TikTok users (not specifically young adults) consumed news on the platform, but by 2024, 39% of adults under 30 were using TikTok for news[1][3]. This suggests a more than quadrupling of the share of young adults consuming news on TikTok, aligning with the claim's assertion of a significant increase.

### Conclusion

Based on the available evidence, the claim that the share of young voters who get their news from TikTok more than quadrupled in the last four years is supported. The growth in news consumption among young adults on TikTok aligns with this trend, indicating a substantial shift in how young voters access news.

### Recommendations for Further Research

– **Specific Data on Young Voters**: While the current data focuses on young adults, further research should aim to specifically target young voters to confirm the trend.
– **Comparative Analysis**: A comparative study with other social media platforms could provide additional insights into the broader media consumption habits of young voters.

In summary, the available data supports the claim of a significant increase in news consumption from TikTok among young adults, which can be reasonably extended to young voters. However, more targeted research would be beneficial for definitive conclusions.

Citations

Claim

TikTok users who don't care very much about politics are eight percentage points more Republican than they were four years ago.

Veracity Rating: 2 out of 4

Facts

To evaluate the claim that TikTok users who don't care very much about politics are eight percentage points more Republican than they were four years ago, we must consider several factors, including shifts in political alignment, the role of TikTok in political discourse, and broader trends in political polarization.

## 1. **Shifts in Political Alignment Among Young Voters**
Recent analyses suggest that there has been a shift in political alignment among young voters and less politically engaged individuals. For instance, following the 2024 election, there was a noted decline in support for the Democratic Party among key demographics, including young voters and non-white groups. This trend is attributed to factors such as economic dissatisfaction and inflation concerns, which may drive less politically active individuals towards conservative or Republican-leaning views[1][5].

## 2. **Role of TikTok in Political Discourse**
TikTok has become a significant platform for political discourse, especially among younger demographics. It has been used by both sides of the political spectrum to disseminate information and shape public opinion. The reactionary right, in particular, has leveraged TikTok to rebrand itself as more diverse and relatable, focusing on themes like Christianity and traditional gender roles[1]. Additionally, a study found that TikTok's algorithm exhibited a pro-Republican bias during the 2024 presidential election, recommending more Republican-aligned content[3].

## 3. **Political Polarization and Engagement**
Political polarization is a growing concern, with many individuals living in "ideological bubbles" where they are less exposed to opposing viewpoints[2]. This polarization can lead to shifts in political alignment as individuals become more entrenched in their beliefs. Less politically engaged individuals might be more susceptible to these shifts due to limited exposure to diverse political perspectives[2].

## 4. **Evidence Supporting the Claim**
While there is no direct evidence from the search results specifically stating that TikTok users who don't care much about politics are eight percentage points more Republican, the broader trends suggest that there is a shift towards conservative or Republican-leaning views among certain demographics. This shift is influenced by factors such as economic concerns and the strategic use of social media platforms like TikTok by conservative groups[1][3][5].

## Conclusion
The claim that TikTok users who don't care very much about politics are eight percentage points more Republican than they were four years ago is not directly supported by the available search results. However, there are broader trends indicating shifts in political alignment among young and less politically engaged voters, driven by economic issues and strategic political messaging on platforms like TikTok. Further research, including surveys or political studies specifically targeting TikTok users, would be necessary to validate this claim.

**Recommendations for Further Research:**
– Conduct surveys or studies focusing on the political leanings of TikTok users who are less engaged in politics.
– Analyze how economic factors and social media platforms influence political alignment among younger demographics.
– Investigate the role of algorithmic biases on social media platforms in shaping political views.

Citations

Claim

By the end of the election Donald Trump was promising to save TikTok.

Veracity Rating: 4 out of 4

Facts

## Claim Evaluation: Donald Trump Promising to Save TikTok by the End of the Election

To evaluate the claim that Donald Trump was promising to save TikTok by the end of the election, we need to examine his statements and actions during his 2024 campaign.

### Evidence Supporting the Claim

1. **Campaign Pledges**: During his campaign, Trump indeed made promises to save TikTok. He filed an amicus brief with the Supreme Court on December 27, 2024, urging the court to delay the effective date of a law banning TikTok, allowing his administration to negotiate a resolution that would preserve the app's availability in the U.S. while addressing national security concerns[2][4]. This move was consistent with his campaign trail pledge to oppose a ban on TikTok[5].

2. **Public Statements**: Trump expressed his support for TikTok, highlighting its popularity among younger Americans and its role in his campaign's success. He suggested that banning TikTok would benefit its competitors and emphasized the need to protect American jobs and businesses[1][5].

3. **Executive Actions**: After his inauguration, Trump took immediate action by instituting a 75-day period of non-enforcement of the ban via an executive order, effectively keeping TikTok operational in the U.S.[3].

### Analysis of Trump's Position on TikTok

Trump's stance on TikTok has evolved significantly. Initially, in 2020, he sought to ban the app due to national security concerns[3]. However, during his 2024 campaign, he shifted his position, promising to save the app while still acknowledging security risks[5]. This change likely reflects his recognition of TikTok's popularity and its utility as a political tool, as well as potential political and economic benefits[2][4].

### Conclusion

The claim that Donald Trump was promising to save TikTok by the end of the election is **supported** by his campaign pledges, public statements, and subsequent executive actions. Trump's efforts to delay the ban and negotiate a resolution reflect his commitment to keeping TikTok operational in the U.S., aligning with his campaign promises[1][2][4].

Citations

Claim

Trump has been getting more unpopular rapidly as time has gone on.

Veracity Rating: 2 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluating the Claim: Trump's Unpopularity Over Time

The claim that **Trump has been getting more unpopular rapidly as time has gone on** can be evaluated by examining his approval ratings over time. Here's a detailed analysis based on available polling data:

### Historical Context

1. **Early Decline in Strong Approval**: During Trump's first term, his strong approval ratings declined significantly. For instance, they dropped from around 30% in February 2017 to about 21% by May 2017, largely due to controversies like the healthcare bill and the travel ban[2].

2. **Recent Trends**: In his second term, Trump has experienced some of his highest approval ratings, with a job approval rating of 47% in a recent NBC News poll[1]. This suggests that while his base may have eroded in the past, he has maintained or even increased support in certain periods.

### Current Trends

– **Approval Ratings**: Despite fluctuations, Trump's overall approval ratings have not consistently declined in recent times. In fact, he has seen periods of high approval, such as the current 47% rating[1].

– **Base Erosion**: Historically, Trump's base has shown signs of erosion, particularly in strong approval ratings[2]. However, this does not necessarily translate to a rapid decline in overall popularity in recent months.

– **Comparative Analysis**: The Democratic Party has faced significant challenges, including a decline in popularity to an all-time low in some polls[1]. This shift in public perception might influence how Trump's popularity is perceived relative to the opposition.

### Conclusion

The claim that Trump has been getting more unpopular rapidly as time has gone on is not entirely supported by recent data. While his strong approval ratings have historically declined, his overall approval has seen periods of stability or even increase in recent times[1][2]. The political landscape is complex, with both parties facing challenges in maintaining public support. The Democratic Party's declining popularity and shifts in voter demographics further complicate the narrative around Trump's unpopularity[1].

### Recommendations for Future Analysis

1. **Longitudinal Studies**: Conducting longitudinal studies of Trump's approval ratings over his entire political career can provide clearer insights into trends and fluctuations.

2. **Comparative Polling**: Analyzing polling data from multiple sources and time frames can help identify consistent patterns or anomalies in public opinion.

3. **Contextual Factors**: Understanding the impact of specific policies, events, and economic conditions on public perception can offer a more nuanced view of Trump's popularity over time.

Citations

Claim

There is a higher information, higher engagement coalition among Democratic voters.

Veracity Rating: 2 out of 4

Facts

To evaluate the claim that there is a higher information, higher engagement coalition among Democratic voters, we need to consider several factors, including voter demographics, educational attainment, and political engagement levels. Here's a detailed analysis based on available research:

## Voter Demographics and Engagement

1. **Educational Attainment**: Research indicates that voters, particularly those who identify as Democrats, tend to have higher levels of educational attainment compared to non-voters. For instance, voters are more likely to have a college or postgraduate degree than non-voters (25% vs. 10% and 21% vs. 10%, respectively)[1]. This suggests a correlation between higher education and political engagement among Democratic-leaning voters.

2. **Age and Engagement**: However, recent trends show that younger voters, who are typically more educated and potentially more engaged, are displaying conservative tendencies and moving away from the Democratic Party[3]. This shift complicates the narrative of a uniformly higher engagement coalition among Democrats.

3. **Racial and Ethnic Groups**: The 2024 election saw significant shifts in support among racial and ethnic groups, with Democrats losing ground among Hispanic moderates and non-white conservatives[3]. This indicates that while some segments of the Democratic coalition may be highly engaged, others are becoming less supportive.

## Economic Dissatisfaction and Political Polarization

1. **Economic Issues**: Economic dissatisfaction and inflation concerns have driven some voters, particularly those less politically active, towards Trump[3]. This suggests that economic issues are a critical factor in voter engagement and political alignment, potentially undermining the idea of a uniformly higher engagement coalition among Democrats.

2. **Ideological Polarization**: The electorate is becoming more ideologically polarized, with education and political engagement playing significant roles[5]. While Democrats may retain strong support among highly educated and engaged voters, they face challenges in appealing to less engaged or conservative-leaning groups.

## Conclusion

The claim that there is a higher information, higher engagement coalition among Democratic voters is partially supported by data showing higher educational attainment among voters. However, recent trends indicate that this coalition is not uniform and faces challenges from declining support among key demographics and increasing ideological polarization. Democrats need to adapt their messaging to better engage with a broader range of voters, particularly on economic issues.

**Evidence and Citations**:
– Higher educational attainment among voters compared to non-voters supports the idea of a more informed coalition[1].
– Shifts in support among younger voters and non-white groups suggest a more complex engagement landscape[3].
– Economic dissatisfaction and ideological polarization are critical factors influencing voter engagement and alignment[3][5].

Citations

Claim

The Democrats are facing a trust deficit on core issues that could negatively impact future elections.

Veracity Rating: 3 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluating the Claim: Democrats Face a Trust Deficit on Core Issues

The claim that Democrats are facing a trust deficit on core issues, potentially impacting future elections, is supported by various analyses and surveys. This evaluation will examine the evidence from recent studies and political trends.

### Trust Deficits and Issue-Based Perceptions

1. **Issue-Based Trust**: A recent report by Navigator Research highlights that while Democrats hold advantages on issues like ensuring the wealthy pay their fair share in taxes and protecting Social Security, they face challenges on issues such as reforming the government and handling the economy[1]. This mixed perception suggests that Democrats may struggle to build broad trust across all key issues.

2. **Economic Policies and Voter Perception**: The same report indicates that a significant majority of voters believe Republican economic policies favor wealthy individuals and corporations more than Democratic policies do[1]. This perception could erode trust in Democratic economic policies among certain demographics.

### Demographic Shifts and Political Polarization

1. **Demographic Trends**: Following the 2024 election, there has been a noted decline in Democratic support among key demographics, including young voters and non-white groups[5]. This shift is partly attributed to ideological polarization driven by education and political engagement, with less politically active individuals gravitating towards conservative ideologies due to economic dissatisfaction and inflation concerns[5].

2. **Polarization and Messaging Strategy**: The trend of younger voters displaying conservative tendencies further complicates the Democratic Party's future prospects[5]. Analysts emphasize the need for Democrats to reassess their messaging strategy to better engage everyday voters on economic issues, rather than solely focusing on democracy and institutional integrity[5].

### Electoral Accountability and Voter Behavior

1. **Electoral Accountability**: The concept of electoral accountability suggests that voters should reward or punish politicians based on their performance[2]. However, if voters perceive politicians as ineffective or unresponsive, this can lead to a distrust in the political system as a whole, potentially affecting trust in specific parties like the Democrats.

2. **Voter Skepticism**: Weak oversight and perceived poor performance by incumbents can increase voter skepticism and bias against incumbents, even if they perform well[2]. This skepticism can exacerbate trust deficits if voters perceive Democratic leaders as ineffective or disconnected from their needs.

### Conclusion

The claim that Democrats face a trust deficit on core issues is supported by evidence of mixed perceptions on key issues, demographic shifts, and the need for strategic messaging adjustments. While Democrats maintain advantages on certain issues, challenges in economic policy perception and demographic support suggest a broader trust deficit that could impact future elections. Addressing these challenges will be crucial for the Democratic Party to regain and maintain voter trust.

**Evidence Summary:**

– **Issue-Based Trust**: Democrats have mixed advantages on key issues, with challenges in economic and governance areas[1].
– **Demographic Shifts**: Decline in support among young and non-white voters due to ideological polarization[5].
– **Electoral Accountability**: Voter skepticism towards incumbents can exacerbate trust deficits if perceived as ineffective[2].
– **Messaging Strategy**: Need for Democrats to focus more on economic issues to engage everyday voters[5].

Citations

Claim

The dynamics of midterm elections are influenced by the coalitions voters form and their engagement levels.

Veracity Rating: 4 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluating the Claim: Dynamics of Midterm Elections Influenced by Voter Coalitions and Engagement

The claim that the dynamics of midterm elections are influenced by the coalitions voters form and their engagement levels can be evaluated by examining previous midterm elections and studies on voter turnout and engagement patterns.

### Evidence Supporting the Claim

1. **Voter Turnout and Engagement**: Research indicates that voter turnout plays a crucial role in midterm elections. For instance, the 2022 midterms saw Republican gains largely due to higher turnout among their supporters compared to Democrats[3][5]. This differential turnout highlights how engagement levels can significantly impact election outcomes.

2. **Coalitions and Demographic Shifts**: Studies show that political coalitions are fluid and can shift based on emerging issues and voter engagement. For example, the 2022 midterms demonstrated a strong urban-rural divide, with rural voters favoring Republicans and urban voters supporting Democrats[5]. Additionally, shifts in support among demographic groups, such as Hispanic voters, can influence election dynamics[1].

3. **Political Polarization and Engagement**: There is evidence that political polarization affects voter engagement and coalition formation. Less politically active individuals may be influenced by economic concerns, leading them to support candidates like Trump[4]. This trend suggests that ideological polarization can drive voter behavior, especially among less engaged voters.

### Additional Insights

– **Young Voters and Conservatives**: Recent trends indicate that younger voters are displaying more conservative tendencies, which could impact future Democratic support[4]. This shift underscores the need for political parties to adapt their messaging strategies to engage with diverse voter groups effectively.

– **Economic Dissatisfaction and Inflation**: Economic issues, such as inflation, can significantly influence voter behavior, particularly among less politically active individuals. This economic dissatisfaction can lead to shifts in voter coalitions, as seen in the gravitation towards candidates perceived as addressing these concerns[4].

### Conclusion

The claim that midterm election dynamics are influenced by voter coalitions and engagement levels is supported by evidence from recent elections and studies on voter behavior. Factors such as differential turnout, demographic shifts, and economic dissatisfaction play critical roles in shaping these dynamics. Political parties must adapt to these changes by rethinking their messaging strategies to effectively engage with diverse voter groups.

### Recommendations for Future Research

1. **Longitudinal Studies**: Conducting longitudinal studies to track voter engagement and coalition shifts over time can provide deeper insights into the dynamics influencing midterm elections.

2. **Voter Engagement Strategies**: Investigating effective strategies for enhancing voter engagement, particularly among less active groups, could help political parties better connect with their constituents.

3. **Economic Policy Impact**: Analyzing how economic policies and messaging affect voter behavior can inform political strategies aimed at addressing economic dissatisfaction and inflation concerns.

Citations

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