In the ever-evolving landscape of global demographics, discussions surrounding population trends have spurred both intrigue and concern. One such conversation unfolded on the YouTube channel Triggernometry, featuring Dr. Paul Morland, an eminent author and broadcaster specializing in demographic analysis. In this engaging episode, Morland articulates the alarming issue of population collapse and its potential repercussions on society and the economy. As with any impactful discourse, claims made must be diligently scrutinized to uncover the truths hidden within. In this blog post, we will delve into the key assertions made by Dr. Morland during his interview and provide a comprehensive fact check to discern the accuracy of his statements regarding the implications of declining populations worldwide.

Find the according transcript on TRNSCRBR

All information as of 03/10/2025

Fact Check Analysis

Claim

We got more deaths than births in the UK for the first time last year.

Veracity Rating: 2 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluating the Claim: "We got more deaths than births in the UK for the first time last year."

### Introduction

The claim suggests that for the first time, the number of deaths exceeded the number of births in the UK. This assertion can be verified by examining recent demographic data from reliable sources such as the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

### Evidence and Analysis

1. **Recent Trends in Births and Deaths:**
– In the year to mid-2023, England and Wales reported 598,400 births and 598,000 deaths, indicating a near balance but a trend towards more deaths than births[1].
– In 2023, England and Wales recorded 591,072 live births, which is the lowest number since 1977[3]. Meanwhile, deaths in England and Wales increased by 0.7% in 2023 compared to 2022, with 581,363 deaths registered[5].
– These figures suggest that while the claim might not be entirely accurate for the entire UK, there is a significant trend towards more deaths than births in parts of the UK, particularly in England and Wales.

2. **Historical Context:**
– The last time deaths outnumbered births in the UK was during the pandemic year of 2020, when there were 689,629 deaths and 683,191 births[2]. This was the first time in 44 years that deaths exceeded births.
– Scotland and Wales have experienced more deaths than births consistently since 2015 and 2016, respectively[2].

3. **Demographic Shifts and Implications:**
– The demographic shift towards more deaths than births is influenced by low fertility rates and an aging population. Factors such as housing costs, childcare expenses, women's education, and delayed family formation contribute to declining birth rates[3].
– Experts like Dr. Paul Morland emphasize the importance of understanding these trends due to their impact on economic and social structures. He suggests fostering a pronatal culture to address these challenges[Summary].

### Conclusion

While the claim that deaths exceeded births in the UK for the first time last year might not be entirely accurate for the entire UK, there is a clear trend towards this scenario, particularly in England and Wales. The UK did experience more deaths than births in 2020 due to the pandemic, and certain regions like Scotland and Wales have consistently reported more deaths than births since 2015 and 2016, respectively. The underlying demographic shifts are driven by low fertility rates and an aging population, which have significant implications for the workforce and societal structures.

### Recommendations for Further Analysis

– **Pronatal Policies:** Investigate policies that support family formation, such as those in Israel, to understand how they might mitigate low fertility rates.
– **Economic and Social Factors:** Analyze the impact of economic factors like housing and childcare costs on fertility decisions.
– **Migration Impact:** Consider how migration affects overall population growth despite negative natural change.

### References

[1] The Spectator. (2024). Britain has entered a birth rate crisis.
[2] Office for National Statistics. (2021). Impact of births and deaths on UK population change: 2020.
[3] Office for National Statistics. (2024). Births in England and Wales: 2023.
[4] GOV.UK. (n.d.). A review of recent trends in mortality in England.
[5] Office for National Statistics. (2024). Deaths registered in England and Wales: 2023.

Citations

Claim

In Britain we're moving rapidly from three workers to every retiree to two.

Veracity Rating: 3 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluating the Claim: "In Britain we're moving rapidly from three workers to every retiree to two."

To assess the validity of this claim, we need to examine the current and projected worker-to-retiree ratios in the UK, considering demographic trends and employment data.

### Current Demographic Trends

1. **Population Aging and Low Fertility Rates**: The UK is experiencing a significant demographic shift due to aging and low fertility rates. This trend is exacerbated by the fact that deaths have recently outnumbered births for the first time, contributing to a shrinking workforce[1][3].

2. **Worker-to-Retiree Ratio**: Historically, the worker-to-retiree ratio has been a critical metric for assessing the sustainability of pension systems. The claim suggests a shift from three workers per retiree to two, which aligns with broader concerns about the sustainability of pension systems in aging populations.

3. **Projected Changes**: Experts predict that the state pension age in the UK will need to rise significantly, potentially to 71 by 2050, to maintain a sustainable worker-to-retiree ratio. This is due to increasing life expectancy and declining birth rates, which are projected to result in a higher proportion of retirees relative to workers[1][3][5].

### Evidence Supporting the Claim

– **Demographic Shifts**: The UK's population is aging, with a growing proportion of retirees. This trend is consistent with the claim that the worker-to-retiree ratio is decreasing[1][3].

– **Economic Pressure**: The pressure on pension systems due to demographic changes supports the notion that the ratio of workers to retirees is becoming less favorable. This is reflected in discussions about increasing the state pension age to maintain economic sustainability[1][3][5].

– **Global Context**: Similar trends are observed globally, with many countries facing challenges related to aging populations and low fertility rates. This broader context supports the idea that the UK is not alone in experiencing these demographic shifts[2].

### Conclusion

While the exact ratio of "three workers to every retiree" moving to "two" is not explicitly documented in the provided sources, the underlying demographic trends and projections support the notion that the UK is experiencing a significant shift in its worker-to-retiree ratio. This shift is driven by aging and low fertility rates, which are common challenges faced by many developed economies. Therefore, the claim is generally consistent with broader demographic and economic trends in the UK.

### Recommendations for Further Verification

1. **Detailed Demographic Data**: Access to specific historical and projected worker-to-retiree ratios from reliable sources like the Office for National Statistics (ONS) would provide precise data to validate the claim.

2. **Economic Studies**: Reviewing economic analyses and reports from think tanks and research institutions can offer insights into how demographic changes impact pension sustainability and workforce dynamics.

3. **International Comparisons**: Comparing the UK's demographic trends with those of other countries can help contextualize the global implications of aging populations and low fertility rates.

Citations

Claim

It's falling dramatically low as low as two thirds of a child per couple in Korea.

Veracity Rating: 4 out of 4

Facts

## Claim Evaluation: Fertility Rates in Korea

The claim states that fertility rates in Korea have fallen dramatically low, as low as two-thirds of a child per couple. To evaluate this claim, we need to examine the total fertility rate (TFR) in South Korea, which is the average number of children a woman would have during her reproductive years.

### Evidence from Reliable Sources

1. **Total Fertility Rate (TFR)**: In 2023, South Korea's TFR reached a record low of 0.72 children per woman, which is the lowest globally[1][3]. This figure is indeed below one child per woman, aligning with the claim of being as low as two-thirds of a child per couple when considering the average per couple.

2. **Historical Context**: South Korea's fertility rate has been declining rapidly since the 1980s. In 2019, it became the first country where a woman was expected to have less than one child in her lifetime, with a TFR of 0.92[2]. This trend has continued, with the TFR projected to further decline below 0.7 in 2024[3].

3. **Demographic Implications**: The low fertility rate in South Korea is attributed to various factors, including socioeconomic changes, high education levels among women, delayed marriage, and the high cost of raising children[4]. These factors contribute to a rapidly aging population and significant demographic challenges.

### Conclusion

The claim that fertility rates in Korea are as low as two-thirds of a child per couple is supported by recent data showing a TFR of 0.72 in 2023. This figure indicates that, on average, a woman in South Korea is expected to have fewer than one child, aligning with the claim when considering the average per couple. The rapid decline in fertility rates poses significant demographic and economic challenges for South Korea.

### Recommendations for Policy and Cultural Shifts

To address these challenges, experts suggest implementing policies that support families and encourage childbirth, such as universal parental leave and family-friendly tax policies[3][5]. Additionally, fostering a pronatal culture that values family life, as seen in countries like Israel, could be beneficial. However, these measures must be tailored to address the specific socioeconomic and cultural factors contributing to low fertility rates in South Korea.

—

**References:**

[1] [South Korea's Fertility Rate Should Be a Warning to the World](https://www.salzburgglobal.org/news/latest-news/article/south-koreas-fertility-rate-should-be-a-warning-to-the-world)

[2] [Korea's low birth rate issue and policy directions](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9334168/)

[3] [The Necessary Paradigm Shift for South Korea's Ultra-Low Fertility](https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2024/09/24/the-necessary-paradigm-shift-for-south-koreas-ultra-low-fertility/)

[4] [The relationship between changes in the Korean fertility rate and policies](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9733182/)

[5] [New study: How the taxman impacted South Korea's fertility rate](https://www.brunel.ac.uk/news-and-events/news/articles/New-study-How-the-taxman-impacted-South-Korea's-fertility-rate)

Citations

Claim

Population trends suggest that the world is moving into a demographic transition characterized by low fertility rates.

Veracity Rating: 4 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluation of the Claim: "Population trends suggest that the world is moving into a demographic transition characterized by low fertility rates."

The claim that the world is moving into a demographic transition marked by low fertility rates is supported by substantial evidence from demographic studies and global trends.

### Demographic Transition Overview

The demographic transition is a model that describes how societies shift from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as they develop economically and socially[1][2]. This transition typically occurs in stages:

1. **High Birth and Death Rates**: Pre-industrial societies have high birth and death rates, resulting in relatively stable population sizes.
2. **Declining Death Rates**: Improvements in healthcare and sanitation lead to a decrease in mortality rates, causing population growth.
3. **Declining Birth Rates**: As societies modernize, fertility rates decrease due to factors like increased education, urbanization, and access to contraception.
4. **Low Birth and Death Rates**: Most developed countries reach this stage, where both birth and death rates are low[1][2].

### Global Fertility Trends

– **Low Fertility Zones**: Over half of the world's economies, accounting for two-thirds of the global population, now have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman[3]. This includes regions like Europe, East Asia, and increasingly parts of the Americas and India[5].
– **Fertility Decline**: The past two decades have seen a significant decline in fertility rates globally, with many countries experiencing drops of over 50% from pre-transition levels[2][5].

### Factors Contributing to Low Fertility Rates

– **Material Factors**: High costs of living, housing, and childcare are significant contributors to declining birth rates.
– **Cultural Factors**: Increased women's education, delayed family formation, and changing societal values also play crucial roles[2].

### Implications and Concerns

– **Economic Impact**: Low fertility rates lead to aging populations, which can strain social support systems and affect economic productivity[3][4].
– **Pronatal Policies**: Some countries are implementing policies to encourage higher birth rates, such as financial incentives and family-friendly policies[3].

### Conclusion

The claim is valid based on current demographic trends and research. The world is indeed experiencing a demographic transition characterized by low fertility rates, driven by both material and cultural factors. This shift has significant implications for global economic and social structures.

### Evidence Summary

In conclusion, the claim is supported by substantial demographic evidence and research on global fertility trends and the demographic transition model.

Citations

Claim

People are having less sex, getting married later, and coupling up later and less.

Veracity Rating: 4 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluating the Claim: People Are Having Less Sex, Getting Married Later, and Coupling Up Later and Less

The claim that people are having less sex, getting married later, and coupling up later and less can be evaluated through various sociological studies and demographic trends. Here's a detailed analysis of the claim's components:

### 1. **People Are Having Less Sex**

– **Evidence**: Studies and surveys have shown that young people are indeed having less sex. For instance, a 2018 article in *The Atlantic* highlights that young people are experiencing a decline in sexual activity, attributing this to factors such as a decrease in couplehood and an increase in living with parents, which can hinder sexual relationships[2]. This trend is not unique to the U.S.; similar patterns have been observed in other wealthy countries[2].

### 2. **Getting Married Later**

– **Evidence**: There is a well-documented trend of delayed marriage across many countries. For example, in the U.S., the age of first marriage has increased significantly over the past few decades. This delay is often linked to factors such as increased education and career focus, as well as changing social norms around marriage and partnership[2].

### 3. **Coupling Up Later and Less**

– **Evidence**: The decline in couplehood among young people is another aspect of the changing landscape of relationships. Fewer people are marrying, and those who do are marrying later. Additionally, the share of people living together without marriage hasn't risen enough to offset the decline in marriage, with many young adults living with their parents rather than partners[2].

### Demographic Context in the UK

– **Population Trends**: The UK has recently experienced a significant demographic shift, with deaths outnumbering births for the first time, leading to concerns about low fertility rates and their impact on the workforce[1][3]. Factors contributing to these trends include material challenges like housing costs and cultural shifts such as delayed family formation[1].

### Conclusion

The claim that people are having less sex, getting married later, and coupling up later and less is supported by various studies and demographic trends. These changes reflect broader societal shifts influenced by economic, cultural, and educational factors.

**Summary of Key Points:**

– **Less Sex**: Young people are experiencing a decline in sexual activity, partly due to reduced couplehood and living arrangements[2].
– **Delayed Marriage**: Marriage is being delayed due to increased focus on education and career, as well as changing social norms[2].
– **Coupling Up Later and Less**: Fewer young people are forming long-term partnerships, with many living with parents rather than partners[2].
– **UK Demographic Trends**: The UK faces challenges related to low fertility rates and population changes, influenced by economic and cultural factors[1][3].

Citations

Claim

There is a lack of a pronatal culture affecting birth rates.

Veracity Rating: 3 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluating the Claim: Lack of a Pronatal Culture Affecting Birth Rates

The claim that a lack of a pronatal culture affects birth rates suggests that cultural factors play a significant role in influencing fertility rates. This assertion can be evaluated by examining sociocultural research and public attitudes towards parenting.

### Cultural Factors and Birth Rates

1. **Sociocultural Influences**: Cultural norms and values can significantly impact fertility decisions. For instance, societies with strong family-oriented values often have higher fertility rates. Israel is cited as an example where a strong pronatal culture contributes to higher birth rates despite modern challenges like those faced by other developed countries[5].

2. **Women's Education and Career**: Increased education and career aspirations among women have been linked to delayed family formation and lower fertility rates. This trend is observed in many developed countries, including South Korea, where low fertility rates are a significant concern[4].

3. **Public Attitudes**: Public attitudes towards parenting and family life can influence birth rates. A pronatal culture that values family life can encourage higher fertility rates by making parenting more socially acceptable and economically viable[5].

### Material Factors and Birth Rates

While cultural factors are important, material factors also play a crucial role in fertility decisions:

1. **Housing and Childcare Costs**: High costs of housing and childcare are significant barriers to family formation. These economic pressures can lead to delayed or reduced family size, contributing to low fertility rates[2][4].

2. **Economic Uncertainty**: Economic instability and uncertainty can discourage people from having children, as they may feel less secure about their ability to provide for a family[4].

### Effectiveness of Pronatal Policies

Pronatal policies aim to increase birth rates by providing incentives such as financial support, childcare provisions, and parental leave. While these policies can have some impact, their effectiveness is mixed:

1. **Short-Term Impact**: Pronatal policies may lead to short-term increases in birth rates but often fail to change long-term fertility trends[3][4].

2. **Cultural and Societal Context**: The success of pronatal policies depends on the cultural and societal context. For example, policies that align with existing cultural values and provide comprehensive support for families are more likely to be effective[3][5].

### Conclusion

The claim that a lack of a pronatal culture affects birth rates is supported by evidence that cultural factors significantly influence fertility decisions. However, material factors such as housing costs and economic uncertainty also play critical roles. Fostering a pronatal culture that values family life, alongside addressing material barriers, could help mitigate declining fertility rates.

**Evidence Summary**:
– **Cultural Influence**: Sociocultural norms and values impact fertility rates, with pronatal cultures often associated with higher birth rates[5].
– **Material Barriers**: Economic factors like housing and childcare costs significantly affect fertility decisions[2][4].
– **Pronatal Policies**: While these policies can have short-term effects, their long-term impact is mixed and context-dependent[3][4].

In conclusion, both cultural and material factors contribute to declining birth rates, and addressing these through a combination of cultural shifts and policy interventions is crucial for influencing fertility trends.

Citations

Claim

In Israel, they have a pronatal culture despite being wealthy and educated.

Veracity Rating: 4 out of 4

Facts

## Evaluation of the Claim: Israel's Pronatal Culture Despite Wealth and Education

The claim that Israel maintains a pronatal culture despite being wealthy and educated is supported by various studies and data. Here's a detailed analysis of the evidence:

### Cultural Factors and Fertility Rates

1. **Cultural Aspects and Pronatalism**: Israel's high fertility rates are attributed to strong cultural and familial values. These values are deeply rooted in Jewish tradition and are not limited to religious groups alone. Even secular and traditional Jewish populations in Israel exhibit higher fertility rates compared to their counterparts in other developed countries[1][2]. This suggests that cultural factors play a significant role in promoting family life and larger family sizes.

2. **Education and Fertility**: Unlike many other developed countries, where higher education is often associated with lower fertility, Israeli women with higher education levels still have more children than their counterparts in Europe. This is unusual because, globally, increased education typically correlates with lower birth rates[3][5].

3. **Religiosity and Fertility**: While religiosity is a factor in fertility, especially among ultra-Orthodox Jews, it is not the sole driver of Israel's high birth rates. The fertility rate among non-religious and secular Jewish populations is also higher than in other OECD countries, indicating that cultural and societal norms beyond religiosity contribute to these trends[2][4].

### Economic and Policy Factors

1. **Economic Conditions**: Despite economic challenges similar to those in other developed countries, such as housing costs and childcare expenses, Israel's fertility remains high. This suggests that economic factors alone do not fully explain the fertility trends in Israel[3].

2. **Government Policies**: While Israel does have some family-friendly policies, such as flexible work arrangements and support for working mothers, these policies are not unique to Israel and are often less generous than those in other developed countries like Canada[1][3]. Thus, policy alone does not fully account for Israel's exceptional fertility rates.

### Conclusion

The claim that Israel maintains a pronatal culture despite being wealthy and educated is supported by evidence highlighting the significant role of cultural and familial values in promoting higher fertility rates. These cultural factors, combined with societal norms that prioritize family life, contribute to Israel's unique position among developed countries with high fertility rates.

In summary, while economic and policy factors play some role, it is the cultural aspects that are most crucial in explaining Israel's high fertility rates. This is evident from the fact that even secular and educated populations in Israel have higher fertility rates compared to similar groups in other developed countries.

**Evidence Summary:**

– **Cultural Pronatalism**: Strong cultural values emphasizing family life are widespread across different segments of Israeli society[1][2][4].
– **Education and Fertility**: Higher education does not lead to lower fertility in Israel as it does in many other countries[3][5].
– **Religiosity**: While important, religiosity is not the sole driver of high fertility rates; secular populations also exhibit high fertility[2][4].
– **Economic and Policy Factors**: Economic challenges and family policies are present but do not fully explain Israel's fertility trends[1][3].

Citations

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